Did they find the Tail of Flight MH370?

by Michael Barber
Created 3/20/2014,11:00am
Last Updated 3/21/2014, 10:27pm

According to INMARSTAT, the ping data from Flight MH370 hour by hour took longer and longer for the data to travel to the satellite from the plane.  There really is no way to explain that except with the explanation that the plane was moving further and further from the geo-centric orbit of the satellite over the Indian ocean.  If you are a good scientist, when the facts change, then the conclusions must change as well.  The probability that MH370 crashed has increasingly become more and more likely with every day.

"I don't want to speculate...Its the best lead we have", said Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott.  However, that was over two days ago now with heavy searching for the missing debris of flight MH370.  It is starting to become obvious that the debris previously spotted by the Australian Royal Navy on 3/19/14 has disappeared without a trace like many of the other leads for the disappearance of Flight MH370.  Some extrapolation of the data may be in order if this debris is never found again since it may end up being the only clue to the disappearance of the flight.  What were the objects spotted?  Furthermore, what happened to those objects? 


  Image 1: Side by side comparison original image with a blow-up of the original image containing "authentic" picture of real Malaysian 777 Rear/Vertical Stabilizer.  

  Image 2: Shows actual 777 stabilizer sized/scaled and rotated into the satellite image.  




Further analyzed

As you can easily see in the image, the Vertical Stabilizer fits exactly into the image dimensions.  Also, a large portion of the rear fuselage, including the rear part behind the vertical stabilizer, where the "box box" is normally located, is still attached.  All the proportions seem to match up to the debris.  Once the images are superimposed, you can even see the extra part of the rear fuse.  The fuse part normally located behind the stabilizer shows under the arrow the authorities have added to mark the length of the debris and is not that obvious on the satellite photo until the two images are superimposed.  This part of the fuse suddenly becomes evident on the other side of the arrow.   In addition, you can start to make out the red part of the logo of Malaysian Air on the tail.  The blue is not distinct because it is too close to the color of the water.  I'm sure this logo would be much more prevalent if the image were color and this maybe why the authorities decided to only provide a blank and white photo.  Once you see the images together, it becomes clear that it is the rear vertical stabilizer with a large chunk of the rear fuse still attached.  Despite part of the fuse still attached to the vertical stabilizer, it looks like the horizontal stab on the left side is broken off.  If the right part of the horizontal stabilizer were still attached, it would be underwater as the vertical stabilizer is flat on the water.  However, it is likely broken off as well because the added weight would probably pull the vertical stabilizer under water.  Also, the horizontal stabilizers are likely broken off because when the plane hit the water, the vertical forces on those surfaces relative to the water would have pulled the horizontal stabilizers in different vertical directions to the momentum of the fuse/stabilizer wanting to continue on a straight lateral path.  This is because the fuse and vertical stabilizer penetrate the water without regard to up and down tendencies from the water.  These different forces would have broken off the horizontal stabilizers away from the vertical stabilizer.  The vertical stabilizer surviving the crash is very similar to the Air France 447 wreckage where the rear stabilizer was also one of the largest pieces to survive on tact and on top of the water.  

Also, either the very top of the vertical stabilizer is broken off, or, it’s underwater.  However, it makes sense that it is probably just under water because it is the “thinnest” part of the assembly and it curves back down to form the tip of the vertical stabilizer.  In the color image, I have simply cut that top part of the vertical stabilizer off, to make it more clear, that possibly more of the tip of the stabilizer is present in the satellite image.  However, this white part of the satellite image could also just be white caps from waves and the tip of the stabilizer is damaged in some way.  It could also be additional wreckage present in that area on top of the top part of the stabilizer.  I believe the images that Australia have -- are a lot more clear, and they can more easily and precisely determine that this is the vertical stabilizer.  I also believe this is why the Prime Minister was so confident.  However, based just on these images I feel plenty confident that this is real wreckage and it is the vertical stabilizer wreckage of the plane.

The only issue with these comparisons is that the vertical stabilizer on a 777-200 with the fuselage should be about 45 feet or about 13.8 m.  It is very possible the discrepancy between 13.8 m and 24 m is because of the additional fuselage parts.  It might also be  attributed to Australia seeing addition wreckage or giving the public a slightly inflated size based upon other surrounding wreckage they are able to see in a much better satellite photograph.  We also don't know if their measurement is measuring the length corner to corner which would be the longest measurement of the image. 

Some have speculated that these satellite photos were being compared to cargo containers because of the length.  However, normal cargo containers are usually of a similar length of 40 feet.  In addition, cargo containers are rectangular and it is clear this object is not rectangular.  In contrary to what others have speculated, this object appears to be too small in width to be a part of the wing especially with the taper being this prevalent for the amount of length.  Also, wings take the brunt of the forces on impact as they are protruding out from the plane, and are also closer to the front of the impact. They are, therefore, quickly mangled on impact due to the extra forces and typically break away.  It is difficult to see how a portion of the wing this big could survive such an impact.  Typically, the tail of the plane suffers the least amount of damage because it is further away from the brunt of the impact.


What Happened to the objects?

The issue is that at the time of the discovery and reporting of the suspected debris, several days at already passed from the original satellite pictures of the objects.  If you look carefully at the images you can see the image of the vertical stabilizer is already somewhat submerged.  The object appears to be much more submerged than the stabilizer from the Air France flight 447 crash at the time of discovery.  The vertical stabilizer surface is constructed to be air tight.  However, unlike the Air France flight 447 crash, it has also been now over 2 weeks since the suspected crash of MH370 and in much harsh environmental conditions.  In addition, if the satellite photo above is the vertical stabilizer of the ill fated flight, it is obvious from the image, that a much larger portion of the rear of the fuselage remains attached to the stabilizer compared with Air France flight 447.  This would lead to addition weight against the buoyancy of the vertical stabilizer which would pull the object further down into the water.  This would likely lead to more water leaking into the air tight cavities of the stabilizer and make it more likely over time to sink.  Then there is the fact that the seas in this part of the world are much more rough.  It is very high probability by now that the last major clue to the disappearance of flight MH370 could well be over 12,000 feet under the oceans surface by this time.

Back to original theory

  NOTE: Twitter - suspended my account for NO reason and there are very few humans there that actually answer any emails.  So I'm trying to get these images out to people because I think it could be weeks or never before wreckage is actually recovered, causing even more needless suffering for the families.  It seems pretty clear to me, from these images, that the debris that was found -- IS the tail of MH370.  Please feel free to link this web page in any fashion you want.  I sincerely mourn and send out my prayers to all the family members of this flight -- may god comfort your souls and give you peace as quickly as possible.

Modified images are Copyright (C) 2014 by Michael Barber. 
Permission is given to use these images or link to this page freely as long as the entire web page is cited/linked back to and proper credit is given.